NZ Herald 30 May 2020

AThe boat might be heading into a storm, but she’s a seaworthy vessel and won’t sink.

Your letter must be one of the bleakest ever sent to this column. Things are not that bad — honestly.

At first glance the answer to your question would seem to be cheap rental property. But houses in good shape aren’t cheap enough, even in the countryside. And while you would receive rent — hopefully — you would be tying up your savings in an asset that’s likely to lose value, at least over the next year or two. Even if the value later grows, you can’t spend that money.

The vegie garden idea is good, plus some fruit trees. If you are keen gardeners, you could grow some interesting varieties to feed yourselves and sell at a local farmers market. You might also buy hens and perhaps even a cow for milk and cheese.

You could also look into solar energy, and read up on how self-sufficient people manage without using money. But it will be a challenge.

What do most retired people spend on? According to Massey University’s Retirement Expenditure Guidelines, two-person households living outside “metro” areas spend most on housing and household utilities, which for you would include rates, maintenance and energy — if you are not DIYing the energy.

Next comes food, which we’ve already discussed, and transport. Would it be feasible to use bikes or e-bikes? Then there’s recreation and culture, which is obviously spending that is very shrinkable.

We could go on, but it’s probably best if you check the guidelines to see what applies to you. The report is at tinyurl.com/RetSpending. Appendix 1 is a list of weekly spending for one and two-person households in metro and provincial areas. It’s also broken down into No-Frills and Choices spending — with the latter obviously including more luxuries.

I don’t see how you can avoid needing at least some cash, for things like rates. And that means parking some of your savings, for future spending, in some kind of investment.

You could choose something like art or collectibles, but it seems to me that they are sitting there waiting for those who don’t really know what they’re doing to be ripped off by those who do know.

So let’s look at whether the main financial assets — shares, bonds and cash a.k.a. bank term deposits — are really in such dire straits.

Shares plunged in March, but have since recovered more than half that fall, in both New Zealand and overseas. In New Zealand, the NZX50, is now back to where it was in late November. And the MSCI world share index is back to levels seen last August.

Still, nobody knows where shares will go next. I don’t like my chances of talking you into a share fund investment. You could use a bond fund, which would be somewhat less risky, but it would still have its ups and downs.

In the end, given your worries, you should probably stick with bank term deposits. I know you’re concerned about bank stability. But take a look at the Reserve Bank’s Financial Strength Dashboard, which I wrote about last week. Our banks don’t seem to be at death’s door.

What about negative interest rates? I’ll be writing about that next week. But in the meantime I wouldn’t get too worried.

Another option, of course, is to put cash in a safe or safety deposit box. But make sure it’s theftproof, waterproof, fireproof and rat-proof.

AThe Simplicity spokesperson last week was talking about whether it would make sense to be in five different types of funds. It would be hard to justify that many.

But there are several reasons for being in more than one fund, in or out of KiwiSaver:

• You’re transitioning into a higher-risk fund to get higher average returns over the long run, and you can cope with volatility. But it’s better not to move all the money at once.
• You’re transitioning into a lower-risk fund because the time you plan to spend the money is getting nearer, or you’ve realised you can’t cope with high volatility. Again, a gradual move works better.
• You’re trying out a higher-risk fund, but with just a portion of your money at first to see if you can cope with higher volatility.
• You’re planning to spend some but not all of your KiwiSaver money on a first home, within the next ten years. So you have that money in lower risk, but the rest in higher risk to get the greater long-term growth.
• Perhaps the most common reason: in retirement, you want your short-term spending money to be in low risk, your medium-term money in middle risk and your long-term money in higher risk.

The first three reasons apply just for a while — perhaps a few months. And I’m sure you can see why having all your money in one fund wouldn’t work in those situations.

But the last two reasons might apply for years. So why not just average things out and hold all your money in a medium-risk balanced fund?

The answer depends on your spending plans. Here’s the golden rule: Don’t expose money you expect to spend within the next three years to the risk of a share market downturn.

Let’s say you’ve ignored the rule, and all your money is in a balanced fund. You’re about to withdraw some to buy a home or spend in retirement. About half the investments in your fund will be shares, and if the share market has fallen recently, your withdrawal is the equivalent of selling shares at a low price. Not good.

If, instead, you had some of your money in a high-risk fund and some in low risk, you could make your withdrawal from the low-risk one. Sure your high-risk investment will have fallen in the downturn, but you’re not touching that money for years, so it has time to recover.

So where are we? If you’re saving for retirement several decades away, having all your money in a balanced fund will bring you much the same results as having half in low risk and half in high risk.

But if you plan to spend some of the money sooner, use more than one fund.

To work out which risk level is best for you, go to the KiwiSaver Fund Finder on sorted.org.nz and click on “Find the right type of fund for you” on the left side.

AYou’re referring to last week’s first Q&A, in which a young couple are struggling to buy a house because of the man’s involvement in his parents’ mortgage.

Your idea is not a bad one. But it would stop him from possibly taking advantage of first home help through KiwiSaver. And her income would have to be high enough to get the loan on her own.

Also, ideally two members of a couple have equal interest in their home.

I would rather see the couple sort their situation through the steps suggested last week. But thanks for writing.

AAgain I’m starting my reply to you with, “Oh dear”. One person’s gentle tease can be another person’s taunt. Sorry if I was unkind.

You’re right that the taxation of PIEs seems unfair. However, after a kerfuffle last year when Inland Revenue told 120,000 people they were paying too little tax on KiwiSaver and would have to pay more, the department is at least now trying to be helpful.

It says on its website, “If you’re enrolling into KiwiSaver for the first time we may let you and your scheme provider know what we think your prescribed investor rate should be. We base this on the income information we have in your myIR account.”

This service, plus the publicity last year, hopefully mean most people are now paying the correct tax on their KiwiSaver income.

The fact that just 20 per cent of taxpayers pay 80 per cent of the tax is indeed noteworthy. That latest numbers I can find, from Treasury, say the top 20 per cent actually pay 64 per cent of tax, but you might be using a different definition of tax.

Anyway, the situation is because we — and most countries — have “progressive” tax rates. For example, people earning less than $14,000 a year pay 10.5 per cent on each dollar earned, while higher-income people pay 33 per cent on every dollar they earn over $70,000.

I’m comfortable with that, but not everyone is. Unhappy people might want to recall that back in the 1980s the top tax rate was 66 per cent, so the imbalance would have been much greater.