NZ Herald 31 August 2013

AI quite agree that forecasts for Auckland house prices are worrying. But I’m not sure baby boomer trends will have a dominant effect on prices.

Boomers are usually said to be born between 1946 and 1964 — a full 18 years. Furthermore, they won’t all sell their rental properties and homes when they first retire, but over several decades — some perhaps in their eighties or nineties. From when someone born in 1946 turned 65, in 2011, to when someone born in 1964 turns 90, in 2054, there’s a span of 43 years over which boomers might be selling property.

Sure, there are a lot of boomers. So their selling will put some downward pressure on prices. But there are so many other influences, such as the supply of new homes and the pace of immigration. It all adds up to anybody’s guess — and perhaps not a good enough reason to sit on the housing sideline.

I suggest you think hard about “renting for life” in New Zealand. Unlike in Europe, we don’t usually have long-term leases and the expectation that tenants will stay in one property for decades. It’s not uncommon for New Zealand tenants to be booted out when the landlord wants to sell.

Still, there seem to be more New Zealanders planning to rent for life or at least to retirement — and not always because they can’t afford to buy. Some want the flexibility and lack of responsibility that come with renting. And that’s fine, as long as they will retire with enough to either cover rent for the rest of their lives or buy them a house at that stage.

If you prefer the latter — and most people in retirement do like the security of home ownership — the risk is that your savings through your working years don’t grow as fast as house prices. You’re clearly thinking it’s the opposite, that your savings might grow more than houses. And that’s also a possibility.

However, if you do want to own your own home at some stage, the low-risk strategy is to get into the housing market now. While prices might fall in future, that probably won’t matter much as long as you either stay put or sell and buy in the same market.

Even if you think you might move into another housing market at some point, there’s more to life than optimizing house purchases. I reckon that if you want to own a your own place, buy one. Sometimes it will turn out well, sometimes not, and life goes on.

As an example of this, let’s dip into the history of someone I know well. She once bought a house in St Heliers for $380,000 and sold it a couple of years later for about $265,000 — a 30 per cent drop. On another house in Birkenhead, she spent $150,000 doing it up and recouped none of that when selling. On the other hand, she’s also made some great gains, including a house price that almost doubled in two years in Sydney.

It all comes out in the wash over the years.

ANo. I’m not sure how you got that impression. Sorry to alarm you.

“Primary homes are exempt,” says Parker, who is Labour’s finance spokesperson. “Second homes and baches are not exempt, but carry-over provisions for inherited property including baches means capital gains tax is not triggered by death/inheritances.”

So you don’t need to worry that when you inherit the family bach and don’t plan to sell it, you’ll have to pay tax.

AI was also disappointed to see the length of the Mighty River Power (MRP) offer document. But there’s hope.

The government is working on changes that will include two-part offer documents, called product disclosure statements or PDSs, for all financial products including shares. At the front will be a one- or two-page key information summary, which hopefully will give less sophisticated investors at least the main information they need to know. Behind that will be more in-depth info. The law will require the whole document to be “clear, concise and effective.”

The new law setting this up is expected to be passed this year. But there’ll be a transition period — how long hasn’t yet been announced — before it takes effect.

Meanwhile, though, we’re stuck with the old rules. And Treasury is unapologetic about the length and complexity of the MRP document, which it helped to draft.

In initial public offerings, the company has to disclose everything “material to potential investors,” says a Treasury spokeperson. “In the case of the Government’s share offer programme, the companies involved are multi-billion dollar organisations. Describing them in full detail requires extensive and prudent disclosure.”

He adds that the MRP document had to meet the needs of different groups, “including retail investors, institutional investors, the news media and financial advisers…. For example, the information required by a retail investor buying $1000 worth of shares may be different from that of an institutional investor, such as a KiwiSaver fund, who is buying millions of dollars worth of shares on behalf of other people.”

Treasury was reluctant to give retail investors a lower level of information than other audiences, he says.

“However, significant effort was made to ensure that it was clearly segmented and included sections at the front of the document which summarised the investment opportunity and the investment risks, and provided more detailed analysis and comprehensive financial statements further through the document for those investors requiring more information.

“In other media reporting the MRP offer document’s comprehensiveness and clarity was described as ‘gold standard’.”

Okay, so opinions differed. But how about next time?

Asked if the documents for other Mixed Ownership Model (MOM) shares sales are expected to be shorter and easier to understand, the spokesman said, “The Meridian share offer document will be a thorough and comprehensive document. It will be clearly separated into key sections so investors can navigate it easily.

“The quality of an offer document should be assessed on the comprehensiveness of the investment proposition being put forward, not its length.”

Well yes, but short and read has got to be better than long and glanced through.

What about price? Will investors be asked to subscribe before they know the price in the other MOM sales?

“The Government has announced that Meridian shares will be purchased via two instalment payments over 18 months,” said the spokesman. “The Government has also confirmed a retail price cap will be used to provide greater price certainty.”

The first instalment payment will be at a fixed price, expected to be around 60 per cent of the share price. The final instalment price will be within a range, with the price fixed at the conclusion of the share offer.

That means that retail investors — you and I — will at least know the most we’ll have to pay, although institutions may pay a higher price. For more on the instalment payments, see www.governmentshareoffers.govt.nz.

The spokesman added that it’s a good idea to seek advice before buying shares, “using the services of a share broker or Authorised Financial Adviser.”

Fair enough. But are people planning to buy just $1000 worth of shares going to do that? Roll on the new documents, which I hope will make it easy for those people to inform themselves adequately.

Oh, and by the way, what I’ve said here is my own personal view. It has nothing to do with my role on the board of the Financial Markets Authority.